Tuesday
Oct312006
Best Horse for the Course?
Tuesday, October 31, 2006 at 08:04PM
I am getting frustrated with the "winner take all" approach to technology. Will Google be the dominant or only search engine? Will myspace.com beat out facebook.com? Will VoIP replace circuit-switched? Will WiMAX replace WiFi?
Yes, there are likely to be major tectonic shifts in many industries, in which the incumbents especially risk losing share. But must it be so black & white? What many of these arguments miss is that there is often room for multiple solutions, and that customers will choose the "best horse for the course". My understanding of this phrase is that good horse race handicappers will change their selection of the likely winner depending on the condition of the race course; some run better in mud, some better on dry grass, etc.
We already see this with other products and services we use. We eat at different restaurants depending on time-of-day, need for speed, taste preferences, and budget. We use different cleaning products around the home, depending on the surface and type of dirt. Consumer marketing companies have dealt with this for decades and talk about "share of wallet" (Visa) and "Share of stomach" (various food companies). They realize it is not a game of absolute winners and losers, but rather winning many small battles.
Let's start applying the same thinking to technology. For example, even 10 years from now, a customer connecting to the internet might use wired connections, WiFi (home, office, or hotspot), and WiMAX connections. And perhaps by then, Bluetooth, Ultra Wide Band, or 802.20 might figure into the mix. Each will offer some price, convenience, and speed advantage for a particular session or scenario. The game for purveyors of these technologies or services will be to win against the other companies in their sector, and to push the envelope for when to be the preferred technology.
The payoff will be when a technology marketer says something like: "our customers will use various technologies through the course of a day, but when they face a need with the following characteristics, we offer the best (or only) solution."
Yes, there are likely to be major tectonic shifts in many industries, in which the incumbents especially risk losing share. But must it be so black & white? What many of these arguments miss is that there is often room for multiple solutions, and that customers will choose the "best horse for the course". My understanding of this phrase is that good horse race handicappers will change their selection of the likely winner depending on the condition of the race course; some run better in mud, some better on dry grass, etc.
We already see this with other products and services we use. We eat at different restaurants depending on time-of-day, need for speed, taste preferences, and budget. We use different cleaning products around the home, depending on the surface and type of dirt. Consumer marketing companies have dealt with this for decades and talk about "share of wallet" (Visa) and "Share of stomach" (various food companies). They realize it is not a game of absolute winners and losers, but rather winning many small battles.
Let's start applying the same thinking to technology. For example, even 10 years from now, a customer connecting to the internet might use wired connections, WiFi (home, office, or hotspot), and WiMAX connections. And perhaps by then, Bluetooth, Ultra Wide Band, or 802.20 might figure into the mix. Each will offer some price, convenience, and speed advantage for a particular session or scenario. The game for purveyors of these technologies or services will be to win against the other companies in their sector, and to push the envelope for when to be the preferred technology.
The payoff will be when a technology marketer says something like: "our customers will use various technologies through the course of a day, but when they face a need with the following characteristics, we offer the best (or only) solution."
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